Canadian voters appear to have given the governing Liberals, led by owlish central banker and businessman Mark Carney, a fourth term after a snap parliamentary election prompted by U.S. President Donald Trump’s threats to take over Canada.
On Monday night, decision desks at major Canadian broadcasters like CBC, CTV and Global News made projections that the Liberals would form the next government soon after 10 p.m., when polls in British Columbia closed. But decision desks at major TV networks stopped short of projecting whether Carney, voted in as Canada’s next leader, would see his Liberals win an outright majority, or would end the election with a minority government and needing coalition partners to govern.
With pre-election polling pointing to a strong election win for Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative Party, Canadians suddenly rattled by Trump and his tariffs wars instead have sent Carney and the Liberals back to power in Ottawa.
The Liberals restored their fortunes with Canadian voters after Prime Minister Justin Trudeau resigned to make way for Carney, just as Trump unleashed his trade policy assault on his northern neighbor. That prompted a wave of nationalism to wash over Canadians characterized by an elbow’s up moment, which is an ice hockey term to raise your fists and protect yourself.
And Carney, with the temperament and tone of a former head of the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, looks to have won the election as Canadians judged who was best to protect Canada against Trump and represent the country across the table from the U.S. President at upcoming U.S.-Canada trade talks.
Poilievre, the Conservative Party leader, by contrast during the campaign saw his poll numbers markedly fall as Canadians concluded he was too much like Trump as the U.S. President took aim at his northern neighbor with economic threats.
Poilievre also faced persistent criticism he didn’t pivot from his rough and tumble-style campaign against Carney to turn his fire on Trump and his tariffs during a federal election campaign increasingly about Trump and his global trade war.
As recent as Monday morning, Trump repeated via his social media account Truth Social a call for Canada to become the 51st U.S. state. That quickly led Poilievre to X, to warn Trump against taunting Canada. “President Trump, stay out of our election… Canada will always be proud, sovereign and independent and we will NEVER be the 51st state,” the Conservative leader stated in his post.
Carney also posted on X on Monday as he addressed Canadians jittery about Trump and his annexation taunts: “We decide what happens. Let’s choose to be united and strong.”